draft

First, consider the complications of the situations these 20-ish-year-old athletes are placed into. How good are their coaches? How healthy is the locker room morale? Who are they competing with to get on the field, and who is mentoring them, if anyone? Those things matter more than we can ever know, and I think this adds to the argument against our capability to predict human behavior. Since it’s impossible to measure any of those factors or even understand the number of variables at play, we just do what humans do best when faced with complexity: ignore it! If someone plays a lot and scores touchdowns, he’s great, and if someone doesn’t play a lot and doesn’t score touchdowns, he sucks.