Keynes vs. Hayek (Business Cycle Theory)

World War II is often credited with bringing the U.S. out of the Great Depression, which is twisted. Frederic Bastiat (my favorite) would call this the “broken window fallacy”, pointing out that destruction is not profit. A shoemaker who spends two francs repairing a broken window is back where he started, neutral, although the window repairman is grateful for the support. It would have been better if the shoemaker could have spent that money on new shoes, or anything that results in a net positive. If someone goes down the street throwing rocks through windows, is that good or bad for the economy? If someone invents an unbreakable window, is that good or bad for the economy? Is it economically beneficial to crank out ships that are just going to get sunk by submarines? People are dying by the millions, cities are being leveled, and your conclusion is this boosted the economy? Twisted.

Start paying attention (budget deficits)

In other words, if things went according to plan, the United States national debt would have increased by over a trillion dollars in 2020! Now, things are not going according to plan on both sides: we’re now spending an additional $2 Trillion and government revenues are primarily based on taxing income and payroll, both of which are going to decrease this year.